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Wednesday, 26 January 2011
Sitting down to review The King’s Speech is a chore in itself – and I’ve been putting it off for such days. It’s difficult to separate the film from the currently (somewhat vague) antagonism that’s surrounding it in the face of its recent PGA win and Oscar nominations and, more so when I think about how long I’ve been waiting to see it. Hooper, often interested in touching on big names in history, turns to King George VI for his latest monarch’s relationship with his speech therapist – the Australian Lionel Logue. As Lionel and Bertie continue through the slog of familial issues and their effects on speech the King is faced with alternating pressures on the home front, a caring – if vaguely detached wife, a seemingly disappointed father and a caddish brother. The King’s Speech is a film that’s unconventional in its conventionality. True, the tale has little to suggest that it’s anything daring or brash but screenwriter David Seidler decides to root the film in a placidness where plotpoints develop not in the usual cinematic spurts but expand sedately – even lethargically – easing along, bit by bit.
It’s an approach that’s necessary because Hooper and company are interested in assessing Bertie not in relation to anyone else but in relation to himself, which renders The King’s Speech extraneous political affairs well, umm, extraneous. It sets itself up as a psychiatric drama, because you’d more likely have reason to measure this against The Prince of Tides (the middle portion at least) where a pleasant doctor aids someone with a troubled past than The Madness of King George an ostensibly similar story of a monarch at odds with himself and those around him. There’s no evidence to suggest that Hooper IS interested in making a prototypical monarch piece but his vision reeks of being indistinctly insular at portions at times because the staunchness with which the focus appears on Bertie and Logue gives the film a feeling of limitedness. Sort of like a dance with two players, but a host of superfluous – if diverting – participants meandering around; reminding me a bit of O. Russell and his occasional inclination to forget that The Fighter should be an ensemble drama.
It’s not that Hooper’s vision is dissonant in discerning what his film is about, but the supporting players around are on their own interesting enough to demand pertinent bits of storyline that their sorely lacking. One of the scene that plays out best in the film has George’s wife (a very serene Helena Bonham Carter) having a chat with Mr. Logue – Rush’s first appearance on screen. This meeting suggests things in both parties that you think would be addressed, but aren’t. Bonham Carter plays with just the right winsome air where she’s the standard Queen with just a tinge of snob about her (tea at the Logue’s) that’s not off-putting but part of her attraction. As interested as she is in ridding Bertie of his issues she’s not exactly driven by devotion, it’s an arc – their entire relationship – that seems especially perplexing when you’d expect his marriage to play as important a role in his speech as his family history. Measure that against Pearce’s cavalier older brother (probably the best work I’ve seen from him) who’s the right amount of cheeky and sanctimonious – without ever being despicable. Firth thrives against them both, so it seems a bit of a disservice to the narrative to have emotional peaks of the story develop behind closed doors – even if the metaphor there is amusing.
And, it’s not to say that the story that we’re actually given is poor – because the alacrity of the screenplay is one of the most charming things about the film. It avoids the most simplistic of traps by stopping the narrative just before George (with Elizabeth) experience seismic popularity. It’s a sort of representation of what Hooper and his company does best – he’s always able to prevent over-saturation. There’s something a bit too on-the-nose about the adage “less is more” but Hooper knows it well. He knows when to cut scenes and moreover when to END the story because as much as The King’s Speech has potential to tell us more it also has obvious potential to be overwrought which The King’s Speech avoids – it’s too classy for that. The thing is, it’s that sort of classiness that wafts over you after perusal, and though I’m not especially prone to the more obvious but sometimes Hooper’s penchant for subtlety descends into innocuousness. And, yes, in the end the payoff works because of – and not in spite of – that opting for a conclusion that’s enduring in its smoothness that I can appreciate for being so well done. It's a bit like Hooper was internalising the DESIDERATA and it's famous advice, go placidly amidst the noise and haste and it does do placid beautifully. It's not a discredit to the film that's it's more interested in the introspective than the extrospective, and yes it errs when it comes to examining those around Bertie. Sure, I'll admit I wanted better, but that's not really a judgement on the film itself - what was served up was perfectly fine, circumscribed on occasion - but laudable.
B/B+
Tuesday, 25 January 2011
This was the first real feature I ever had on this blog, and it’s sort of my favourite so I think it’s fitting that I include it as the first of my miscellaneous categories to kick things off in remembering 2010 in film. As it stands I’ve seen just below 70 films, and it looks like I’ll be unable to get a look at some elusive ones before I unveil my awards – which is unfortunate, but not disastrous. I’ll persevere nonetheless.
I don’t think I’ve ever really cared to explicitly define what qualifies as a forgotten character. In the actual series I’ve covered performances like Ethan Hawke in Training Day – who was forgotten, even though he’s the film’s protagonist and I was tempted to include actors like Lucas Black – who was a necessity in Get Low, in a strong supporting role, but who’s been forgotten almost everyone or Matt Damon in True Grit, who’s not quite exceptional but has gotten almost no recognition for his stoic LeBoeuf. But, ideally, a forgotten character is one of those characters coasting on the sidelines of the narrative, and in their thankless roles become forgotten when the film succeeds. They’re sometimes necessary as the impetus for certain plot-points but because they’ve been written in such a way they never get to be more than a flat character (on paper at least). Some actors can make that work for themselves, though. So, my official Encore Awards begin with a miscellaneous category.
THE NOMINEES
Sally Hawkins in Never Let Me Go (as Miss Lucy)
In a way Hawkins’ natural cadence seems all wrong for the very serious Miss Lucy, but it’s to her credit that the entire arc at Hailsham seems to depend on her performance. There’s something self-effacing about her without being coy, all the while managing to be that sort of perfect teacher that every child hopes for. She understands enough to play Lucy as a projection of Cathy’s memory, without making her too saccharine, though. (Highlight: Conversation with Cathy.)
Rashida Jones in The Social Network (as Marylin Delpy)
After the credits roll (well, the first time) I couldn’t stop thinking about Jones’ Marylin The thing is I’ve always liked Jones, but I’m not being biased when I think of all the little ticks she imbues in a character that’s barely there on the page. She’s able to show Marylin having that slight star struck response to Zuckerberg but still managing to maintain her professionalism, even if you get the sense that she’s sort of contented in being a little silly at times. (Highlight: Her blink-and-you’ll-miss-it laughter during Eduardo’s chicken scenario.)Anna Kendrick in Scott Pilgrim vs the World (as Stacy Pilgrim)
Like everything about Scott Pilgrim vs the World, I was unprepared to be as wholly charmed by Kendrick as I was. Even if she seems too aged to be playing Cera’s younger sister her vocal tics and annoying traits – that aren’t so annoying – are just a few parts of the small things that work so well in this movie. She has a firm grip on the character, even if it is sort of the perpetually gossip-y teen that still feels like something fresh. (Highlight: “I’m literally about to leave!”)
Max Minghella in The Social Network (as Divya Narendra)
I like Max Minghella a whole lot, even though I’ve only seen him in one other film. Everyone seems enamoured (rightfully so, I suppose) with Armie “porn star name” Hammer’s performance but I’m even more impressed with Minghella’s work if only because I find him funniest and most sincere. He’s sort of annoying without ever really being annoying, in fact he’s even likeable sometimes. And Hammer sort of loses me when he imbues the Winklevoss’ with those vaguely unlikeable traits unnecessarily, the script is already least infatuated with them. He’s actually trying to make Divya interesting, if not amiable. (Highlight: Tripping over his feet in horror when he sees that The Facebook has gone live.) Michelle Williams in Shutter Island (as Dolores Chanal)
I’m not certain how much this qualifies because this seems a slight bit more than a small character, but when you really think about it Williams really doesn’t have much of a role. She’s playing a memory, and unlike Mal in Inception even if she does provide the climax of the tale she’s not as constant. But she completely sells it given one of the strongest performances I’ve seen her. (Highlight: The revelation, of course.)
FINALISTS: Tammy Blanchard in Rabbit Hole; Yaya DaCosta in The Kids Are All Right; Viola Davis in Eat Pray Love; Crispin Glover in Alice in Wonderland; Cillian Murphy in Inception
SEMI-FINALISTS: Michael Gambon in The King’s Speech; Artie Hammer in The Social Network; Cherry Jones in Mother & Child; Johnny Simons in Scott Pilgrim vs the World; Mae Whitman in Scott Pilgrim vs the World
So, we begin 2010 in Review in Encore’s World, of the top 5 ultimate forgotten who made the biggest impression on you? Williams’ haunting wife? Kendrick’s droning sister? Or the lone male nominee, Minghella? Which forgotten character of 2010 do you wish would get some love?
So, the nominations are here and even though I'm spouting off on twitter I'm strangely zen about the whole affair. True, those song nominees are making me see red, but I'm sort of glib about stupity like Steinfeld for Supporting Actress and such. Let's take a look, shall we?
SOUND EDITING
I predicted 127 Hours / Toy Story III / Inception / Scott Pilgrim vs the World / True Grit. Here's how it went, Actual Nominees: Inception /Toy Story III / TRON: Legacy / True Grit / Unstoppable
So, I get three out of five, I'm kind of shocked that 127 Hours didn't make it here, and in theory I'm glad that the sound voters recognise some less than prestigious flicks (aka Unstoppable). I suppose I was a bit a lot fanciful in predicting Scott Pilgrim vs the World here.
SOUND MIXING
I predicted 127 Hours / Inception / Shutter Island / Toy Story III / True Grit Actual Nominees: Inception / The King's Speech / Salt / The Social Network / The King's Speech
I get two out of five here; I'm not in love with 127 Hours, but the snub sure is odd. Of course good work in Robin Hood and Green Zone would be ignored, but I thought this was a shoo-in. Just an aside, people need to quit dogging on The King's Speech, for one it's nomination makes more sense than The Social Network (although they both make worthy nominees) - I wonder if people actual get what sound mixing is. Sheesh, the hate is going overboard. The entire first ten minutes of The King's Speech depends on the blend of score with sound - which is, sound mixing.
ORIGINAL SONG
I predicted IF I RISE from127 Hours / YOU HAVEN'T SEEN THE LAST OF ME from Burlesque / CHANSON ILLUSIONIST from The Illusionist / I SEE THE LIGHT from Tangled / WE BELONG TOGETHER from Toy Story III and the Actual Nominees: COMING HOME from Country Strong / I SEE THE LIGHT from Tangled / IF I RISE from 127 Hours / WE BELONG TOGETHER from Toy Story III
I get three out of four here, but it hurts to see Burlesque snubbed here. Absolute bull-crap, but I'm going to let that go - what's the point in holding on to it?
ORIGINAL SCORE
I predicted 127 Hours / Alice in Wonderland / Inception / The King's Speech / The Social Network and the Actual Nominees: 127 Hours / How to Train Your Dragon / Inception / The King's Speech / The Social Network
Well, four of five is not bad and it's a bit nice to see How To Train Your Dragon here. I've surrendered to the fact that Oscar choices will not be mine (you'll see those soon enough), and this is a distinguised bunch.
VISUAL EFFECTS
I predicted Alice in Wonderland / Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows / Inception / Scott Pilgrim vs the World / TRON Legacy and the Actual Nominees: Alice in Wonderland / Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows / Hereafter / Inception / Iron Man II
I get three out of five here, and I really can't fathom the love for Iron Man II here. I understand the Alice in Wonderland love - even if I don't agree with it, but that one is a headscratcher.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
I predicted, Black Swan / Inception / The King’s Speech / The Social Network / True Grit Actual Nominees: Black Swan / Inception / The King’s Speech / The Social Network / True Grit
A perfect score here, but well this was a bit easy - no? All wouldn't make a list of my own, and I would have preferred some surprises from the cinematographers who're sometimes much more inventive - but it's a good set.
EDITING
I predicted The Fighter / Inception / The King’s Speech / The Social Network / True Grit and the Actual Nominees: 127 Hours / Black Swan / The Fighter / The King’s Speech / The Social Network
Three out of five; I can't help but hate that Boyle's ADD style earns him a nod here even if I shouldn't fault people for their opinion.
COSTUMES
I get four out of five here, and I can't comment on I Am Love because I've yet to see it. Truth be told, though, I'm kind of happy it's nominated if only because it's something surprising (even if, vaguely so).
ART DIRECTION
I predicted Alice in Wonderland / Inception / The King’s Speech / Shutter Island / True Grit Actual Nominees: Alice in Wonderland / Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows I / Inception / The King’s Speech / True Grit
Four out of five; I like Harry Potter but its nomination here annoys me terribly. It's still above average, but there wasn't much scope for interesting production design this year and even though I suppose my Shutter Island prediction was a pipedream it's still unfortunate.
MAKEUP
I predicted, Alice in Wonderland / True Grit / The Wolfman Actual Nominees: Barney's Version / The Way Back / The Wolfman
And I get one of three, ouch. But I'm GLAD - at least some recognition for these two films many have not seen (myself included).
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I predicted Black Swan / The Fighter / Inception / The Kids Are All Right / The King’s Speech and the Actual Nominees: Black Swan / The Fighter / Inception / The Kids Are All Right / The King’s Speech
And, YES no Black Swan here which means I get four out of five. Sure, I'd throw out the exposition heavy Inception but I'm glad for small mercies. I suppose I have to see Another Year now, not that I'm complaining....
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
I predicted 127 Hours / The Social Network / True Grit / Toy Story III / Winter’s Bone Actual Nominees: 127 Hours / The Social Network / True Grit / Toy Story III / Winter’s Bone
The voters are absolutely crazy for deeming Toy Story as an adapted screenplay (it's a sequel, not a remake) but I get five out of five here, so whatever.
DIRECTOR
My predictions Aronofsky for Black Swan / Fincher for The Social Network / Hooper for The King’s Speech / Nolan for Inception / Reilly for The Fighter Actual Nominees: Aronofsky for Black Swan / Coen's for True Grit / Fincher for The Social Network / Hooper for The King’s Speech / Reilly for The Fighter
Foour out of five; Honestly, the Nolan snub made me laugh because I wanted to call it but then figured, nah. I'm really not incensed because it's not like he's the only one snubbed here - but Oscar dissenters can be so insular at times. Sigh. Again I say, whatever.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Four out of five; I can't explain how annoyed I am at the stupidity of Steinfeld's nod here, it's borderline ridiculous and easily my LEAST favourite thing of the day. It's more than her taking a slot for a deserving supporting player, but the category fraud is heinous. I'm surprised voters went for it, but c'est la vie.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
I predicted Christian Bale in The Fighter / Andrew Garfield in The Social Network / Jeremy Renner in The Town / Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right / Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech Actual Nominees: Christian Bale in The Fighter / John Hawkes in Winter's Bone / Jeremy Renner in The Town / Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right / Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech
Four out of five; I called a surprise here, but I wasn't sure what so I didn't predict it. I'm not shocked to see Garfield go, and really the group could have been much worse.
ACTRESS
It's a strong lineup, there's one or two I'd toss out immediately - not because they're bad, but because it was a great year for women - but it's a good group.
ACTOR
I predicted Jeff Bridges in True Grit / Robert Duvall in Get Low / Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network / Colin Firth in The King’s Speech / James Franco in 127 Hours Actual Nominees: Jeff Bridges in True Grit / Javier Bardem in Biutiful / Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network / Colin Firth in The King’s Speech / James Franco in 127 Hours
I'm get to see Bardem's performance, but I'm not complaining about my four out of five here. There's no absolute stinker in sight, so that's good to see.
ANIMATED FILM
I predicted How to Train Your Dragon / Toy Story III / Tangled and Actual Nominees: How to Train Your Dragon / The Illusionist / Toy Story III
And YES, Tangled is shut-out. The fact that I haven't seen The Illusionist makes me suspect, maybe I'll like it less than Tangled. But I never said I was a man of logic (just check the tagline on my banner).
PICTURE
Nine out of ten with Winter's Bone subbing for The Town which I'm fine with. It's an unsurprising group, but considering my least favourites of the set is 127 Hours (C+) I suppose it's not terrible.
What's more, my prediction of The King's Speech leading the nods with 12 nominations was correct. With 72 correct of 96 options, I think I did fairly well though I just predict for the hell of it and being right doesn't really have any appeal. I know more than a few are furious, but I don't think the nominees are that poor. A few hours have passed, what knee-jerk reactions to the nominees do you have?
Monday, 24 January 2011
Zwick’s overcompensation, Gyllenhaal and Hathaway, biopics in disguise, Love & Other Drugs
0 comments Posted by 2011 at 15:27I often feel out of the loop when it comes to certain fads, films or actors but few make me more perplexed than Hathaway, whose appeal I’m constantly try to extrapolate. So, it’s not surprising that I entered Love & Other Drugs with a sense of trepidation a bit disconcerted about a potentially schmaltzy love fest with her. Something about Love & Other Drugs just sort of ticked me off from the inception. From a very pop-ish opening sequence to the token dinner with the quirky (but brilliant) family where our protagonist is (but of course) the black seep of the family just plays a bit too on the nose, making me want to get up and slap Edward Zwick. Jamie is a typical manwhore who takes up the glamorous (insert sarcasm) job of selling prescription drugs and who happens to fall for a woman with early Parkinson’s – Maggie, and that’s essentially what Love & Other Drugs is about. The thing is, Jake is handling it all wonderfully – but that feeling of overcompensation is difficult to shake off – especially when Hathaway enters the film in typical eccentric fashion for an annoyingly cloying meet-cute, and then somewhere between that the film takes a turn for the better. Zwick is still trying too hard, the nudity which isn’t gratuitous but just screams “90s youth”.
The only reason that the middle portion of Love & Other Drugs manages to work is because Zwick doesn’t seem too interested in making a grand statement about life, or preaching to when his entire technique questionable. However, it turns out that his overreaching arc is just an attempt to make a judgement on Jamie’s life. It was as if Zwick, with his palpable “youth-friendly” appeal just this side of hip was intent on making his Jamie that sort of slightly jerk-y cool guy that we’re forced to love, and it immediately reminded me of Boyle’s ADD direction in 127 Hours. Both directors want to have it both ways, we’re supposed to love this guy but concede that he’s offensive. In the battle of male leads, though, Zwick’s approaches prevails because he’s willing to prevent his flawed antihero as a flawed antihero, and even if he ends up glorifying him in the end that’s less a judgement on his direction and more a question for human psychology. But, as the film meanders to its end Love & Other Drugs becomes more and more cringe worthy, never quite descending to absolute terribleness but still ultimately off-putting. Although, I suppose my jadedness prevents me from deferring to the simplicity of it all, the fact that Zwick never decides what he wants hs film to be opting to jump around like a psycho irresolute novice - which he is not - is neither comforting nor original, though I think he thinks so - though I'll admit, there were times he had me more than a little interested, shame he couldn't keep it up.
C
And, the final set of predictions are here. I just can’t help but feel blah about the whole thing so I’m hoping when the nominees do actually come out I’ll a semblance of interest – or a little more. So, here goes: the predictions on the top three categories.
Screenplays
I was a bit psyched about the writing categories a few months ago, because I was under this dumb delusion that some overlooked pieces (Rabbit Hole, Animal Kingdom, The Ghost Writer) would get some love here. That ship has sailed and it’s all looking very humdrum. The original screenplay is almost a representation of the films trying to edge out The Social Network in the top spot – which makes it look like The Kids Are All Right is hanging on for dear life. I really can’t see anything getting in here, even though Blue Valentine seems like the sort of original piece that would get some love here. Technically, I’d say Black Swan could be replaced here simply because the screenplay is easily its most unoriginal element – but that’s just personal projections, I know.Predictions (alpha): Black Swan / The Fighter / Inception / The Kids Are All Right / The King’s Speech Alternates: Blue Valentine / Please Give / Get Low
The adapted side is a bit more interesting, though I’m not going to be dumb enough to expect my favourites to make it in. Though, there’s still a smidgen of a chance they could make it in on a surprise bid. Due to the rules of the AMPAS (for some weird reason) Toy Story III is eligible here instead of original screenplay. Hubbub for that one has dwindled significantly but I anticipate more love for that than The Town which I’m still not certain is going to get a sizeable bloc of votes.
Predictions (alpha): 127 Hours / The Social Network / True Grit / Toy Story III / Winter’s Bone Alternates: The Town / Rabbit Hole / The Ghost Writer
DIRECTOR
The banality continues with the directors, although I’d prefer this line-up than the Coen’s edging out Reilly – in fact, I’d prefer anyone in the current line-up to the Coen’s. And there doesn’t seem to be a chance of a nod for Choledenko or Granik.
Predictions (alpha): Aronofsky for Black Swan / Fincher for The Social Network / Hooper for The King’s Speech / Nolan for Inception / Reilly for The Fighter Alternates: Coen’s for True Grit
And the final category. I’m predicting a snub for Winter’s Bone, which I think will be like Away From Her getting nods for screenplay and the acting, I don’t anticipate getting those key #1 votes to make it in (although, I don’t see The Town getting #1 votes either). It’s essentially an unexciting list, but I’m not expecting any surprises.
PICTURE
Predictions (alpha): 127 Hours / Black Swan / The Fighter / Inception / The Kids Are All Right / The King’s Speech / The Social Network / The Town / True Grit / Toy Story III Alternates: Winter’s Bone / Get Low / Shutter Islandand of course in the animated section it all looks quite drab, but I've seen two animated films this year....
Predictions (alpha): How to Train Your Dragon / Toy Story III / Tangled Alternates (by probability): The Illusionist / Despicable Me
Other Final Predictions:
Art Direction, Costume Design and Makeup
Sound, Original Song and Score
Visual Effects, Cinematography and Editing
Supporting Actors
Lead Actors
(So my predictions have The King's Speech topping the list with 12 nominees...we'll see how correct I am.)
So, it’s a few hours away – any final hopes for surprises? Will Shutter Island pull of an upset? Are you just blasé about the entire event? Who’s looking forward to hearing Mo’Nique enunciate beautifully?
I can’t help but hate that the Actor and Actress categories are regarded as the superior ones. I guess, back in the day when the supporting players received plaques and not an actual statute that there really was a difference in winning a leading and supporting Oscar – but now that everyone’s receiving the same gold man that sort of logic seems foolish. Still, here we have them – the two main acting categories and pundits would have you believe that the winners have been chosen in both. But, this space is dedicated to predicting the nominees irrespective of potential winners – for now, anyhow.
BEST ACTOR
Predictions (alpha): Jeff Bridges in True Grit / Robert Duvall in Get Low / Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network / Colin Firth in The King’s Speech / James Franco in 127 Hours Alternates (by probability): Mark Wahlberg in The Fighter / Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine
BEST ACTRESS
Predictions (alpha): Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right / Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole / Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone / Natalie Portman in Black Swan / Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit Alternates (by probability): Julianne Moore in The Kids Are All Right / Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine / Hilary Swank in Conviction
Are the lead categories as wrapped up as I think or will the Blue Valentine duo crack the top 5? Will AMPAS honour Hailee here or am I just projecting – incorrectly? Any last minute predictions?
Oh yes, the acting categories. I'll submit my own ballot soon, inevitably after Oscar because I am LAZY, but what will Oscar go for?
SUPPORTING ACTOR
If there’s one thing I can congratulate the general unoriginality of the current awards’ season for it’s for their good choices in the supporting actor category. I’ve long been less than a fan of this category that’s always smattered with co-leads, life-time achievement awards and downright terrible performances. And even though there’s only a slight crossover between my own list and the potential Oscar shortlist, I’m not too mad at them. I’ll admit, it’s more than a little boring seeing Christian Bale sweep through the entire race when there’s a wide variety of great performances – but it’s difficult to deny the goodness of his performance. More than just being a baity performance, it’s actually a good performance – and it’s difficult to deny the goodwill of the very convivial Fighter family. They always seem so welcoming of awards’ attention. I’ve given up on expecting Ruffalo or Rush to pull an upset, and though the Foreign Press Association stupidly ignored him – along with Bale are the holy trimester of this category.
I just have this weird feeling that there’s going to be a shakeup in this category – it’s the most susceptible to shakeup I think because it’s really the only category that seems ironclad (more so than Best Actor). Sure, Renner and Garfield have turned up places but I can see them both getting snubbed. Garfield, because he’s young as good as he is The Social Network is not his film – and Oscar always has this tendency to make the young supporting actors wait for nomination love (case in point Mortensen and Astin in The Two Towers and The Return of the King). But, then, if love for The Social Network is strong then he could be swept in on the coattails. Renner’s a bigger puzzle for me because I still don’t see what’s propelling this apparent widespread love for The Town. And good as Renner is, there just seems to be something precarious about his nomination pool. What of Hawkins? Hmmm. I know that the SAG nod made him seem like a plausible candidate, and he can be a spoiler but love for the Winter’s Bone seems really tapered – he is still a potential candidate
Predictions (alpha): Christian Bale in The Fighter / Andrew Garfield in The Social Network / Jeremy Renner in The Town / Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right / Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech Alternates (by probability): John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone / Bill Murray in Get Low
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
So, is Melissa Leo still going to take this thing? I suppose we can be assured that Melissa, Helena and Amy are heading to nominations and – irrespective of actual performances – I’m happy to see those three getting nominated. It’s impossible to not like Amy and it’s nice seeing not-so-old gals like Melissa and Helena enjoying second nominations in Best Picture candidates. I’m just predicting nominees, so I’ll think about potential winners when I actually have a definitive group to pick from. It’s weird, though, but it’s also normal that the supporting actress race has a gamut of performances to choose some and yet they’re not all getting love. In theory, Jacki Weaver is an obvious nominee – sure, Animal Kingdom hasn’t got the widespread love it would have gotten had it been an American piece, but she’s popped up at enough critics’ awards and has even won a few so despite the SAG snub (stupid) and the BAFTA won (even more) I don’t see her getting snubbed at the AMPAs. But then, it makes me wonder – does she have a better chance of a nomination than Mila Kunis who’s riding the wave of Black Swan? Honestly, that’s the biggest scare I’m having right now – the thought that Kunis could get in over such a wide field of deserving ladies is seriously giving me goose bumps (and not in a good way). And the thing is, right there, we could have a slot of nominees – and sure it’s not that bad because even though I don’t love Leo she’s nowhere terrible in The Fighter...but that sounds too easy, no?
I don’t know why something is telling me to not write off Manville (and include her here instead of Leading), I haven’t even seen Another Year and the last lock Leigh seemed to have (paging Sally “Poppy” Hawkins) didn’t come to fruition despite a Golden Globe nomination and win. But, I sort of want to think they’ll push her here... and then, there’s the biggest category fraud this side of the millennium – Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, which is another exasperating possibility that just depresses me. If she doesn’t make it in the lead race – I don’t see her making it anywhere, because I don’t see the voters being silly enough to reward her here, if they pushed Kate in lead, heck they pushed Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada as a lead (which it wasn’t) so I think we’re safe from her here – the Actress category is another story. And, finally, there is the pair of ladies from Made in Dagenham – Rosamund Pike and Miranda Richardson. Rosamund has had a nice year (or so I heard) apparently being a shining light in Barney’s Version and this biopic, and Miranda is the sort of affable screen presence it’s difficult to ignore. Could there be an upset nomination for either? I wouldn’t be against...but I just don’t know. But, here goes.
Predictions (alpha): Amy Adams in The Fighter / Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech / Mila Kunis in Black Swan / Melissa Leo in The Fighter / Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom Alternates (by probability): Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit / Miranda Richardson in Made in Dagenham / Leslie Manville in Another Year
Are you sensing an upset (nomination) for the men – a la Michael Shannon or William Hurt? Am I crazy for ignoring the possibility of the studios lying through their teeth and earning Steinfeld a nomination? Who’d you love to see pop up in either categories?
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