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Showing posts with label 2010 Oscars. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010 Oscars. Show all posts
Monday, 28 February 2011
So with the end of February comes the official end of the 2010 season. And, what a season it’s been. In my five years of taking the Oscars’ much too seriously, 2009 easily emerges as the worst (even though I loved the year in film, then). 2010 was okay, neither terrible nor excellent – rarely surprising, but always with something interesting (even if vaguely so). Last night’s Oscars were sort of a case in point. I didn’t feel disappointed or excited when the winners were announced; the single prize that actually made me gasp was Tom Hooper’s win. I feel bad for the guy – he, himself, seemed to shuffle embarrassedly to the stage, and I sincerely hope that that win doesn’t signal the death of his big-screen career before its beginning; and for the record, though he’s not my favourite in the category, an unobtrusive technique does not signify weakness in direction, yeesh. Other than that, it was quite tepid – even the “surprises” (Randy Newman, Pfister, Robert Stromberg) were expected in their way, so it was random bits like Cate Blanchett calling the makeup on The Wolfman “gross” and Kirk Douglas bantering with Colin and Hugh and Billy Crystal being awesome that made the night anything more than beige (or Annette Bening grinning through the entrire show, why is she always so happy?)
It’s the shortest month, and it felt even shorter – it just sort of flew by. I managed to wrap-up my own personal awards: with the usual dissonance between my own choices and AMPAS.
I was, as per normal, late with LAMB Casting – we’re on to a new film up for casting, the huge ensemble of P. T. Anderson’s Magnolia is up for reimagining (more details here).
Thanks to the usual readers for being their usual awesome selves (working on their own blogs and showing up here on occasion). Here are just a few of the comments I loved this past month.
On my discussion of Auspicious Cinema of 2010 (important films regardless of their quality, noted for their value, risk and originality) Tom of Reinvention: The Journal of a Dog-Lover, Book-Reader, Moviegoer, and Writer cites two The Kids Are All Right and Black Swan:
“I think Black Swan, of all of this year's films, will endure as an artistic moment that contemporary audiences have been scared to embrace. It is ahead of its time in terms of technical brilliance, telling a multi-layered story that affects the mind and heart on many levels. Those who are willing to enter its inferno of coming-of-age symbols will be forever changed.”
I’m not all with him there on Black Swan being before its time and whatnot, but this sort of discussion is one of the best parts of these year-end conversation – and I sort of love his “inferno of coming-of-age symbols” bit. It sounds highlight quotable.
I was musing over which of this year’s Oscar nominees I’d like to see hook-up in a film and Walter (of The Silver Screening Room) had some absolutely delightful ideas. I especially loved these two:
“Ooooh Bening/Rush makes me giddy, giddy, giddy. A remake of The Barkleys of Broadway? I never saw it, but it sounds like they'd be awesome in it -- husband/wife musical-comedy duo where she wants out). (a/n: how brilliant does this sound, though?)Bardem and Firth as antagonists in a conspiracy thriller: both can be intense or easy-going, depending on the situation or role. The roles are interchangeable, but we get awesomeness no matter what!” (complete comment and post HERE)
I took a quasi-break from regular Oscar guessing to flashback to a personal favourite scene from On the Waterfront. I kept thinking how Eva Marie Saint and Marlon Brando there were so similar to Natalie Wood and Richard Beymer so many years later in another Best Picture Winner. Yojimbo of Let's Not Talk About Movies concurred:
And I rather loved Luke’s comment wrapping up the prognosticating for the season (HERE):“How can you NOT think of ‘Somewhere’ when Leonard Bernstein's tribal kettle drums, mournful brass, and keening strings are shared by both OTW and WSS? This is a brilliant scene (and brilliant of you to include both parts of it—this cements the relationship between Edie and Terry, and transitions him from Hamlet-like conscience-fighting to not just deciding but taking action. And I've always loved the scene of them hand-in-hand running down the alleyway and their faces shining in the dark.” (full comment and post HERE)
“Well, it seems you've got your answer to how the Academy will take A$lice in Wonderland's ‘let's barf visual effects on every frame’ mentality - they ate that crap up. I'm a little bothered by the Art Direction trophy - and just how much of the costuming was real and not CGI? And your final thoughts - how are you feeling about the movie that you named the most anticipated FOREVER ago ended up winning Best Picture. I sort of credit you with calling that one well over a year ago. Well done sir!”
With all the inklings I had, I should have just gone for the gut and predicted Alice in Wonderland in Art Direction. I do feel something vaguely akin to pride in having The King’s Speech being the film I was anticipating most of the year – even if I didn’t love it completely, it still made my top 7. And, really, though I know more than a few disagree (one, two) they could have picked a much more terrible winner – and I know some agree with me (one, two). I worry for Tom Hooper’s future (what with him “stealing the Oscar and all, sigh) but I’m absolutely fine with The King’s Speech resting as the film of the year.
So, goodbye February…how was it for you? Did you find the Oscars’ essentially bland? Did February fly by? Looking forward to March?
Saturday, 26 February 2011
I didn't even realise that I went this crazy with talking Oscar this past season (all entries), it implicitly suggests that I was invested in the season - which I wasn't, but ah well. I do feel the slightest bit saddened that the season is over. Oscar's like one of those friends you can't stand to talk to often, but you'd implode if they died. So, ahoy - final final predictions.
Picture: The King’s Speech
Director: David Fincher for The Social NetworkTo tell you the truth, I wish I had the guts to predict The King’s Speech for both honours – but I’m hoping me not predict it will somehow make it not happen. Not because I’d mind Hooper winning that much (I won’t) – but I could only fathom the uproar that will occur if he does win the Oscar. And, I like the guy – don’t want him mauled. Either way, though, I’m fine. Both films and directors would appear somewhere in my top 10 – so I don’t mind what happens either way. (I’m still hoping for a delicious upset via The Kids Are All Right, but yeah, I’m fine either way.)
Actor: Colin Firth in The King’s Speech (alternate Javier Bardem in Biutiful)
Actress: Natalie Portman in Black Swan (Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right
So, Colin and Natalie? Je ne sais pas. It’s a tossup (in my head at least) for the acting race – but I’m willing expect my favourite to lose. Now that I look at it, though, I want Annette to win even more (apparently it IS possible). Remember she and Colin were in Valmont way back when. Wouldn’t it be nice to see them win Oscars together?
Supporting Actor: Christian Bale in The Fighter (Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech)
Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech (Alternate: Melissa Leo in The Fighter)
So, will HBC finally reach the podium 18 – or is it 13 – years after she deserved to? It depends on who you’re talking to pinpoint the precise year she deserved it, but she has before. Not for her Queen Mother, but do I care? No. I could be wrong, perhaps me wanting it means it won’t happen, but I’m sticking to that prediction. And, I suppose a Bale win is inevitable – which is fine. That pipedream for Ruffalo died long ago (though, I’ll admit I’m still pretending he’s winning in my head).
Original Screenplay: David Seidler for The King’s Speech (Alternate: Christopher Nolan for Inception)
Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network (Alternate: Michael Arndt, Jon Lasseter et al for Toy Story III
People are still predicting an Inception upset – which I swear would make me so infuriated I’m actually worried it’ll happen now. Look, fine I’m not a big Inception fan – but there’s such a colossal difference between originality and writing. The award seems skewed because it says “original writing” and not “screenplay from material previously unpublished”. Ah well, we’ll see what happens... I say it’ll be the two frontrunners for the Picture category with Sorkin and Seidler triumphing. And, since Cholodenko has no luck – I’m fine with these two choices.
Art Direction: The King’s Speech (Alternate: Inception)Makeup: Barney’s Version (Alternate: The Wolfman)
Costume Design: Colleen Atwood for Alice in Wonderland (Alternate: Jenny Beavan for The King’s Speech
Now that I think of it, Art Direction could be a huge toss-up. Sure, The King’s Speech and Inception seem like the frontrunners – but there’s no telling how voters will respond to the obtrusiveness of Alice in Wonderland, and I sort of don’t see True Grit going home empty handed either. Aaargh, then there’s makeup which I’m really just guessing about – and them, Costume Design where I want Colleen to win because she’s the best and I want her to get her third statue, and then there’s Beavan who was snubbed for such great work in the 90s and did such good work on The King’s Speech which I’m not-so-secretly hoping will sweep the ceremony just for the fun of it. Decisions, decisions....
Sound Editing: Inception
Sound Mixing: Inception (The King's Speech)
I decided to go two for two with Inception here, because the sound branch seemed sort of insular in choosing The Hurt Locker last year. And, though, it’s possible they just thought it deserved both – and though Inception is nowhere near frontrunner status – it’s a possibility that seems logical. Now, The King’s Speech (or more realistically True Grit) could upset in the mixing category – but I’ll say no.
Cinematography: Danny Cohen for The King’s Speech (Alternate: Wally Pfister for Inception)Editing: Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall for The Social Network (Tariq Anwar for The King’s Speech)
Visual Effects: Inception (Alternate: Alice in Wonderland)
Okay, I think this is the point where I’m getting ridiculous. Honestly, I can really see Cohen upsetting for photography in the same way that something like The Golden Compass upset for visuals or The Bourne Supremacy upset for sound. And, then I could see the obvious happening and Deakins winning or Pfister winning. Ugh, this is only a conundrum because I’m over-thinking it all – and I know I’m over-thinking it, but I can’t help over-thinking. This reminds me why I opted to show no interest in Oscar last year. I think the editing prize is assured, though. No? And the visual prize seems assured, but I think I’ll laugh if Alice in Wonderland (undeservedly, I’d admit) wins.
Original Score: Alexandre Desplat for The King’s Speech
Original Song: Alan Menken for “I See the Light” from Tangled
We all know how surprising the music branch can go when it comes to choosing winners (case in point: 2005, an exercise in strangeness). Will Desplat and Menken – the deserving – win? Will Zimmer and Rahman – the loud and the obvious – triumph. Will we go even crazier and reward the laidback ones like Reznor and Newman? I’m sticking with the first options.
Foreign Language Feature: Incendies (Alternate: In A Better World)
Documentary Feature: Inside Job (Alternate: Waste Land)
Animated Feature: Toy Story III (Alternate: How to Train Your Dragon)
I have a feeling Incendies is going to win, if only because most people who’ve seen the films admit that it’s terribly mawkish. I have that sort of little faith in the voters, although you’d think them having to watch the films in succession mean the best will win. I can’t be certain, Incendies just seems like a typical choice even if I want to say In A Better World. I’d sort of love Dogtooth to win, just because this guy here loves it – and it’ll probably make him happy. I’m sticking with Inside Job for documentary – just because.
Short Film (Animated): Day & Night (Alternate: Let’s Pollute)
Short Film (Documentary): Killing in the Name (Alternate: The Warriors of Qiugang)
Short Film (Live Action): The Confession (Alternate: God of Love)
I’m honestly stabbing in the dark here, and I sort of love it. I always do zero research for these categories and just choose based on name of film and directors. It’s always fun, but don’t take me seriously here. I have absolutely no authority.
Well, Oscars are in about 18 hours or so. How was the season for you?
Friday, 25 February 2011
I often wonder why the actor and actress categories are considered superior to the supporters, but judging by the nominees this year I’d actually support that theory. The nominees for the leading categories significantly outweigh the supporting players.
ACTOR
Who’d have thought that Colin Firth would be the thespian to reach here before his contemporaries like Neeson, Branagh and Fiennes – but, that’s Oscar for you. He gets an immediate second shot at gold over last year’s loss, and he’s not likely to lose. NOMINEES: Javier Bardem in Biutiful / Jeff Bridges in True Grit / Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network / Colin Firth in The King’s Speech / James Franco in 127 Hours Prediction: Colin Firth Alternate Javier Bardem
I should probably qualify that alternate prediction by saying that of all the feature film categories this is the one where I believe an upset is likely. Still, at this rate, if any upset were to occur it would be one of catastrophic proportions – and who better than the man who turned into (somewhat) of an upset nominee. Analysing the field, on performances, I’d say that the prize is between Eisenberg and Firth so I don’t mind that Firth has sort of swept through the season, even if some deserving men got no love (my ballot). I never actually considered Sean Penn’s Milk to be an upset, the last real “surprise” this category saw was Adrien Brodey, but parallels between he and Eisenberg are tenuous at best. It’s Colin’s race.
ACTRESS
Logically, I shouldn’t be getting any sort of headache with the prediction for this category because Natalie has sort of swept through the season, well the majors anyway – but I’m still not absolutely certain that she’s the indisputable winner. Hell, it’s possible that I’ll see her on stage with the winning statuette and still doubt the veracity of her frontrunner status – I’m sort of ridiculous like that. I was depending on the BAFTA to give Annette the statue, and prove my theory whereby the Annette/Natalie race would turn into a converse version of the Marion/Julie race (both win Globes, one wins SAG and the other wins BAFTA) – but alas, I was wrong. Logically, if Annette had any hope you’d expect her to take at least one major from Natalie – but other than the surprise British Critics' win (which isn’t exactly a major) she's got nothing. And she still lost the BAFTA, so there’s no proof that she has the British voting bloc behind her.NOMINEES: Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole / Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone / Natalie Portman in Black Swan / Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine
Prediction: Natalie Portman Alternate: Annette Bening
So, I’m predicting Natalie – which makes me feel a little bit like a Judas because I still think that Annette can win this. I’ve never been one to have ridiculous Oscar hopes (I gave up on Cate winning for I’m Not There even before Tilda t urned into the frontrunner) but I’m just getting a feeling, heaven knows what it is. (Really, though, how ironic is it that a win for Annette would be an upset – mindboggling, some.) So, Natalie’s my prediction with Annette as my alternate. You all know what I’m hoping for, though....(my picks)
How ridiculous are my great expectations of an Annette win? Who wants an upset in the Actor category?
Wednesday, 23 February 2011
You sort of want to expect an upset to occur in some acting category, but you also don’t to circulate ridiculous predictions.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
In all honesty, I’d love for some upset to happen in the supporting actor category (granted that upset comes in the form of Mark Ruffalo). Not because I don’t think Bale is fine, but I’m on Ruffalo’s side all the way. In fact, I wouldn’t mind an upset for Rush either, he and Bale go toe to toe for me.NOMINEES: Christian Bale in The Fighter / John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone / Jeremy Renner in The Town / Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right / Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech Prediction: Christian Bale Alternate: Geoffrey Rush
I don’t see Bale losing this, though. Were there an upset, you’d sort of expect it to be Rush if only because he has the most likeable character of the five, and there’s nothing like goodwill behind a film. Add that to the fact that he was instrumental in bringing The King’s Speech to fruition and you have to anticipate some love...but I don’t see the upset happening here.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I can’t be too certain that this is where the upset is happening either. That being said, though, I think any of four persons could take this prize and I wouldn’t be surprised. There’s a bit of irony that the best performance of the lot (i.e. Ms. Weaver) has 0 chance of winning, and more and more persons seem to have an inkling that the least of the five (i.e. Steinfeld) could take the prize. It’s not that I think she’s awful, she’s more than serviceable – but I still find her nomination – in any category – somewhat vexing. I digress, though.NOMINEES: Amy Adams in The Fighter / Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech / Melissa Leo in The Fighter / Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit / Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom Prediction: Helena Bonham Carter Alternate: Melissa Leo
Am I crazy for predicting HBC? I don’t know, I just can’t see Melissa Leo winning the Oscar – I’d even be more willing to predict Amy – not only because I think she’s better, but I’m just not seeing it. I’m thinking back to instances of dual supporting nominees, and they rarely win. Didn’t Helen Mirren pick up more than a few nods (including the SAG) before losing to supporting wife Jennifer Connelly (who was horribly trite in A Beautiful Mind). I’d wager that not only is Helena much better than Jennifer, she’s also more in need of a nod – and Melissa is no Helen either, but I’m alone on that because almost everyone seems smitten with her Alice. It’s a tough game to decide what the voters would go for, and it would probably be more prudent to predict Melissa. I could see this prediction panning out, and then I could see it not. I’m going on a gut, here. Maybe, I’ll change my mind before Sunday....
What do you think will become of the supporting players?
I felt quite a disconnect with the Academy’s decisions for the screenplays – I’d have nominated only three of their ten choices (my own nominees here), sometimes you get the feeling that voters aren’t willing to believe that a fine film could have writing that’s less than top-notch, although I’ll applaud them for not nominating Black Swan – a good film, but not a screenplay worthy of “best-of” citations. Ironically, that nomination would have been better than one, perhaps two, of the actual nominees. But, digressions... let’s take a look at the field.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The logic that because deems Toy Story III an adaptation is ridiculous – being a sequel does not make it an adaptation. All five of the nominees are in consideration for Best Picture, but this is essentially looking like a one-horse race.NOMINEES: 127 Hours (Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle) / The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin) / Toy Story III (Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich) / True Grit (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen) / Winter’s Bone (Debra Granik and Anne Rossellini) Prediction: The Social Network Alternate: Toy Story III
I have it as an alternate, because it’s the most likely upset – but it’s unlikely either way. Sure, it’s the final branch of the trilogy, so there would be goodwill, but it’s not happening. And, really, I don’t mind. With neither Rabbit Hole nor The Ghost Writer in consideration I’m fine with The Social Network taking the prize.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This one is more interesting. I’m not the biggest fan of Inception, although I can appreciate that it has its fan, but I find it difficult to understand how it won the WGA (over Cholodenko and Blumberg).NOMINEES: Another Year (Mike Leigh) / The Fighter (Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy) / Inception (Chris Nolan) / The Kids Are All Right (Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko) / The King’s Speech (David Seidler) Prediction: The King’s Speech Alternate: Inception
Seidler wasn’t eligible for the WGA, and in a perfect world it’d be between he and Cholodenko/Blumberg. Well, actually, in reality The Kids Are All Right would win this prize easily, but The King’s Speech is not a terrible alternative. It’s the likely winner here – I don’t anticipate a Nolan upset, but if one were to occur it’d be this.
It makes for rather tepid predictions, but I suppose there’s some comfort in predictability....right? Are you praying for any upsets in the screenplay field?
Tuesday, 22 February 2011
The music branch of the Academy continues to be fun, if only because attempts to predict what they’ll do become more and more exasperating as the years go by. But, here goes.
ORIGINAL SONG
I’d say that the race is between “I See the Light” and “Coming Home” when it comes to actual merit, with the slight edge going to the former. The music branch has a thing for well produced duets, it’s difficult to deny that with all its issues Tangled does know when to place its songs.
NOMINEES: “Coming Home” from Country Strong / “I See the Light” from Tangled / “If I Rise” from 127 Hours / “We Belong Together” from Toy Story III Prediction “I See the Light” Alternate “We Belong Together”But, then, multiple nominee 127 Hours has such obvious spoiler potential, I wonder if Rahman is headed to a third Oscar, and if they like duets they like pain and heartbreak and inspirational tosh just as much – so, I wouldn’t be shocked if Rahman takes it here, still I'm putting Newman as my alternate because he lost last year and because I have a feeling they're going to want to reward Toy Story III as much as they could (barring the screenplay and picture category), so why not choose it over Tangled, since it's more loved animated film. (Not that I think it even deserves to be nominated, but I digress...)
ORIGINAL SCORE
Is it insularity on the part of AMPAS, or is it just coincidence that three of the 2008 nominees are back to battle it out (the winner included). Naturally, I assume that this is the chance for voters to write that egregious wrong and reward Alexandre Desplat. True, it’s an all-round good set of nominees – but they can’t continue to snub Desplat after robbing him in 2008 and 2009, right? But, then, there’s Zimmer’s VERY intrusive work in Inception and we know that voters like their music loud. NOMINEES: How to Train Your Dragon (John Powell) / Inception (Hans Zimmer) / The King’s Speech (Alexandre Desplat) / 127 Hours (A. R. Rahman) / The Social Network (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross Prediction: The King’s Speech Alternate: Inception
Then, there’s the more subtle work on The Social Network which I don’t think has much upset potential – but is still not one that I should rule out completely. I’m sticking with Desplat, for now, though. It’s about time they reward the music branch’s most ubiquitous composer of the moment.
Saturday, 19 February 2011
It's a bit strange, but I much more excited to see what these three categories will be than the actual main categories. Every category's a main category in my eyes, well except for original song (because they snubbed Burlesque and Chris Martin, unforgivable). Oh well, on to predictions.
MAKEUP
This is the sole category where the nominees have not been singled out in any other category, which makes it the sole category where a Best Picture nominee is not included in the list of nominees. Really, I have no idea what they’ll go for here, I really could see it going to any of the nominees – the fact that I’ve yet to see any of the nominees here doesn’t help my situation.NOMINEES: Barney’s Version / The Way Back / The Wolfman Prediction: The Wolfman Alternate: Barney’s Version
It’s not meant as an insult to the AMPAS voters, but the work on The Wolfman is so intrusive I’d wager that it’d be difficult to ignore. Barney’s Version seems like a worthy alternate because helping characters age is always a valuable way of getting recognition here. I actually want The Way Back to win, just for the talent involved – but it seems to be the most unobtrusive of the nominees. Though, I don’t know if that could be to its credit.
COSTUME DESIGN
Once again, the queens of Costuming (Atwood and Powell) are nominated opposite each other. Last year I was all for an Atwood win (NOMINEES: Alice in Wonderland (Colleen Atwood) / I Am Love (Antonella Cannarozzi) / The King’s Speech (Jenny Beavan) / The Tempest (Sandy Powell) / True Grit (Mary Zophres) Prediction: Alice in Wonderland Alternate: The King’s Speech
I keep thinking, though, that Beavan’s work in The King’s Speech could end up becoming a spoiler. True, the most conspicuous designs often end up triumphing here until that time when they don’t (see: The English Patient over Portrait of a Lady or The Aviator over The Phantom of the Opera). Beavan’s work in The King’s Speech is more modest, but there’s always the possibility that love for The King’s Speech could spill over here – or backlash for Alice in Wonderland...
ART DIRECTION
I find the citation for Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows a bit ridiculous, especially when you consider all the great examples of production design ignored (Agora, Shutter Island, Never Let Me Go, Nowhere Boy or even films they embraced like Black Swan) – other than that, though, it’s a generally good batch of nominees. Though, the inclusion of Alice in Wonderland is a bit predictable – and not in a good way. NOMINEES: Alice in Wonderland / Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows I / Inception / The King’s Speech / True Grit Prediction: The King’s Speech Alternate: Inception
I’d expect The King’s Speech to be assured a win here – the work done is especially good here, and it’s probably facing the greatest competition from Inception. The thing with Inception, though, is that the overlapping between production design and visual effects could seem so stark that The King’s Speech could get the edge.
So, is Atwood going to get that third win from the Academy? Inception or The King’s Speech for production design? Which otherwise ignored film gets the makeup statue?
Friday, 18 February 2011
So, apparently on the cusp of the ASC win for Inception it’s turned into the frontrunner for Cinematography.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
I feel like such a fraud having next to no enthusiasm about the race, so despite the fact that Inception shows up nowhere in my top 12 directors of photography I’d be least interested if it actually wins. Logic dictates that True Grit’s Roger Deakins (who’s been trying for that Oscar for some time) will get his due, but I won’t be surprise if he loses. In fact, my gut tells me that The King’s Speech could very well take this, and I’d be fine since it actually makes my list of nominees – but that could result in a potential bloodbath since everyone isn’t convinced that it’s well shot – and the backlash against it is already deafening. The Social Network is not one to rule out here, either and logically, you have to at least consider the possibility of a Black Swan – a win I’d be on board with. Inception aside (or not, even) it’s a fine bunch of nominees. NOMINEES: Black Swan (Matthew Libatique) / Inception (Wally Pfister) / The King’s Speech (Danny Cohen) / The Social Network (Jeff Cronoweth) / True Grit (Roger Deakins) Prediction: The King’s Speech Alternate: True Grit
Maybe I’ll change my mind, but I’m going with The King’s Speech for cinematography – which is based, more than anything, on a maddening hunch of mine.
VISUAL EFFECTS
As far as locks go, I don’t think that Inception is as assured of its win here as – say – Avatar last year; but it’s most likely to assume that it’ll win here. Logically, I’d only see Harry Potter being any competition; but AMPAS voters have not always been known for logic and there’s no telling what sort of spoiler Alice in Wonderland could end up being here. Perhaps, a distant second...?
NOMINEES: Alice in Wonderland / Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows I / Hereafter / Inception / Iron Man II Prediction: Inception Alternate: Alice in Wonderland
EDITING
You know that trend where the Best Picture winner wins editing, I’m often confused by it...but I digress. Owing to the fact that there is nary a stinker in the ten films nominated for Best Picture, the five editing nominees are quite stellar – with the exception of 127 Hours, which is too unsubtle for me to fête. The Social Network wins my own personal competition, and I predict that it’d be the logical winner here.NOMINEES: Black Swan (Andrew Weisblum) / The Fighter (Pamela Martin) / The King’s Speech (Tariq Anwar) / 127 Hours (Jon Harris) / The Social Network (Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall) Prediction: The Social Network Alternate: Black Swan
I think of The King’s Speech and Black Swan as potential spoilers, although I think the former’s editing is “better” they both have that palpable “edited” feel without being too overworked and Black Swan does accomplish much of its development through its editing, so who knows if a Black Swan surge could occur.
Is Deakins or Pfister headed to the podium? Or is there wisdom in my folly? Does The Social Network and Inception have editing and visuals locked up? Do you care?
Thursday, 17 February 2011
I’ve been shirking my duties as Oscar prognosticator (insert dry laughter) as of late because I’ve been counting down my own awards. I didn’t even realise the BAFTA’s had come and gone, although that could be attributed more to my mystical presence on the internet as of late (computer problems + internet issues + school drama).
SOUND MIXING & SOUND EDITING
I’m still constantly amused by the reaction to The King’s Speech leading the Oscar pack, not because I find aversion to the film impossible – that would be silly – but because too many are willing to reject its sound mixing nomination as something valid. It’s surely not the frontrunner by any means, not conceivably at least, but I don’t find its inclusion to be a moot point.
NOMINEES: Inception / The King’s Speech / Salt / The Social Network / True Grit Prediction: True Grit Alternate: The King’s Speech
NOMINEES: Inception / Toy Story III / TRON: Legacy / True Grit / Unstoppable Prediction: Inception Alternate: Toy Story III
I suppose that Inception will take the sound editing category, if only because 127 Hours was egregiously snubbed here. In the light of its love from the Academy (a whopping 6 nominations) I’m still surprised that they didn’t nominate it here. Sound mixing is trickier, though, and who’s to say that me deeming The King’s Speech as little to no competition will prevent it from winning. I wouldn’t complain whatever wins, none of my nominees are nominated here (Black Swan, Shutter Island, Green Zone) but I’m wary of predicting Inception to take both trophies and considering that True Grit has also been singled out for both sound categories, I’ll wager that that will take the sound mixing category.
Who do you see taking the sound prize?
Tuesday, 25 January 2011
So, the nominations are here and even though I'm spouting off on twitter I'm strangely zen about the whole affair. True, those song nominees are making me see red, but I'm sort of glib about stupity like Steinfeld for Supporting Actress and such. Let's take a look, shall we?
SOUND EDITING
I predicted 127 Hours / Toy Story III / Inception / Scott Pilgrim vs the World / True Grit. Here's how it went, Actual Nominees: Inception /Toy Story III / TRON: Legacy / True Grit / Unstoppable
So, I get three out of five, I'm kind of shocked that 127 Hours didn't make it here, and in theory I'm glad that the sound voters recognise some less than prestigious flicks (aka Unstoppable). I suppose I was a bit a lot fanciful in predicting Scott Pilgrim vs the World here.
SOUND MIXINGI predicted 127 Hours / Inception / Shutter Island / Toy Story III / True Grit Actual Nominees: Inception / The King's Speech / Salt / The Social Network / The King's Speech
I get two out of five here; I'm not in love with 127 Hours, but the snub sure is odd. Of course good work in Robin Hood and Green Zone would be ignored, but I thought this was a shoo-in. Just an aside, people need to quit dogging on The King's Speech, for one it's nomination makes more sense than The Social Network (although they both make worthy nominees) - I wonder if people actual get what sound mixing is. Sheesh, the hate is going overboard. The entire first ten minutes of The King's Speech depends on the blend of score with sound - which is, sound mixing.
ORIGINAL SONG
I predicted IF I RISE from127 Hours / YOU HAVEN'T SEEN THE LAST OF ME from Burlesque / CHANSON ILLUSIONIST from The Illusionist / I SEE THE LIGHT from Tangled / WE BELONG TOGETHER from Toy Story III and the Actual Nominees: COMING HOME from Country Strong / I SEE THE LIGHT from Tangled / IF I RISE from 127 Hours / WE BELONG TOGETHER from Toy Story III
I get three out of four here, but it hurts to see Burlesque snubbed here. Absolute bull-crap, but I'm going to let that go - what's the point in holding on to it?
ORIGINAL SCORE
I predicted 127 Hours / Alice in Wonderland / Inception / The King's Speech / The Social Network and the Actual Nominees: 127 Hours / How to Train Your Dragon / Inception / The King's Speech / The Social Network
Well, four of five is not bad and it's a bit nice to see How To Train Your Dragon here. I've surrendered to the fact that Oscar choices will not be mine (you'll see those soon enough), and this is a distinguised bunch.
VISUAL EFFECTSI predicted Alice in Wonderland / Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows / Inception / Scott Pilgrim vs the World / TRON Legacy and the Actual Nominees: Alice in Wonderland / Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows / Hereafter / Inception / Iron Man II
I get three out of five here, and I really can't fathom the love for Iron Man II here. I understand the Alice in Wonderland love - even if I don't agree with it, but that one is a headscratcher.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
I predicted, Black Swan / Inception / The King’s Speech / The Social Network / True Grit Actual Nominees: Black Swan / Inception / The King’s Speech / The Social Network / True Grit
A perfect score here, but well this was a bit easy - no? All wouldn't make a list of my own, and I would have preferred some surprises from the cinematographers who're sometimes much more inventive - but it's a good set.
EDITING
I predicted The Fighter / Inception / The King’s Speech / The Social Network / True Grit and the Actual Nominees: 127 Hours / Black Swan / The Fighter / The King’s Speech / The Social Network
Three out of five; I can't help but hate that Boyle's ADD style earns him a nod here even if I shouldn't fault people for their opinion.
COSTUMES
I get four out of five here, and I can't comment on I Am Love because I've yet to see it. Truth be told, though, I'm kind of happy it's nominated if only because it's something surprising (even if, vaguely so).
ART DIRECTION
I predicted Alice in Wonderland / Inception / The King’s Speech / Shutter Island / True Grit Actual Nominees: Alice in Wonderland / Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows I / Inception / The King’s Speech / True Grit
Four out of five; I like Harry Potter but its nomination here annoys me terribly. It's still above average, but there wasn't much scope for interesting production design this year and even though I suppose my Shutter Island prediction was a pipedream it's still unfortunate.
MAKEUP
I predicted, Alice in Wonderland / True Grit / The Wolfman Actual Nominees: Barney's Version / The Way Back / The Wolfman
And I get one of three, ouch. But I'm GLAD - at least some recognition for these two films many have not seen (myself included).
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I predicted Black Swan / The Fighter / Inception / The Kids Are All Right / The King’s Speech and the Actual Nominees: Black Swan / The Fighter / Inception / The Kids Are All Right / The King’s Speech
And, YES no Black Swan here which means I get four out of five. Sure, I'd throw out the exposition heavy Inception but I'm glad for small mercies. I suppose I have to see Another Year now, not that I'm complaining....
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
I predicted 127 Hours / The Social Network / True Grit / Toy Story III / Winter’s Bone Actual Nominees: 127 Hours / The Social Network / True Grit / Toy Story III / Winter’s Bone
The voters are absolutely crazy for deeming Toy Story as an adapted screenplay (it's a sequel, not a remake) but I get five out of five here, so whatever.
DIRECTOR
My predictions Aronofsky for Black Swan / Fincher for The Social Network / Hooper for The King’s Speech / Nolan for Inception / Reilly for The Fighter Actual Nominees: Aronofsky for Black Swan / Coen's for True Grit / Fincher for The Social Network / Hooper for The King’s Speech / Reilly for The Fighter
Foour out of five; Honestly, the Nolan snub made me laugh because I wanted to call it but then figured, nah. I'm really not incensed because it's not like he's the only one snubbed here - but Oscar dissenters can be so insular at times. Sigh. Again I say, whatever.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Four out of five; I can't explain how annoyed I am at the stupidity of Steinfeld's nod here, it's borderline ridiculous and easily my LEAST favourite thing of the day. It's more than her taking a slot for a deserving supporting player, but the category fraud is heinous. I'm surprised voters went for it, but c'est la vie.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
I predicted Christian Bale in The Fighter / Andrew Garfield in The Social Network / Jeremy Renner in The Town / Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right / Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech Actual Nominees: Christian Bale in The Fighter / John Hawkes in Winter's Bone / Jeremy Renner in The Town / Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right / Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech
Four out of five; I called a surprise here, but I wasn't sure what so I didn't predict it. I'm not shocked to see Garfield go, and really the group could have been much worse.
ACTRESS
It's a strong lineup, there's one or two I'd toss out immediately - not because they're bad, but because it was a great year for women - but it's a good group.
ACTOR
I predicted Jeff Bridges in True Grit / Robert Duvall in Get Low / Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network / Colin Firth in The King’s Speech / James Franco in 127 Hours Actual Nominees: Jeff Bridges in True Grit / Javier Bardem in Biutiful / Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network / Colin Firth in The King’s Speech / James Franco in 127 Hours
I'm get to see Bardem's performance, but I'm not complaining about my four out of five here. There's no absolute stinker in sight, so that's good to see.
ANIMATED FILM
I predicted How to Train Your Dragon / Toy Story III / Tangled and Actual Nominees: How to Train Your Dragon / The Illusionist / Toy Story III
And YES, Tangled is shut-out. The fact that I haven't seen The Illusionist makes me suspect, maybe I'll like it less than Tangled. But I never said I was a man of logic (just check the tagline on my banner).
PICTURE
Nine out of ten with Winter's Bone subbing for The Town which I'm fine with. It's an unsurprising group, but considering my least favourites of the set is 127 Hours (C+) I suppose it's not terrible.
What's more, my prediction of The King's Speech leading the nods with 12 nominations was correct. With 72 correct of 96 options, I think I did fairly well though I just predict for the hell of it and being right doesn't really have any appeal. I know more than a few are furious, but I don't think the nominees are that poor. A few hours have passed, what knee-jerk reactions to the nominees do you have?
Monday, 24 January 2011
And, the final set of predictions are here. I just can’t help but feel blah about the whole thing so I’m hoping when the nominees do actually come out I’ll a semblance of interest – or a little more. So, here goes: the predictions on the top three categories.
Screenplays
I was a bit psyched about the writing categories a few months ago, because I was under this dumb delusion that some overlooked pieces (Rabbit Hole, Animal Kingdom, The Ghost Writer) would get some love here. That ship has sailed and it’s all looking very humdrum. The original screenplay is almost a representation of the films trying to edge out The Social Network in the top spot – which makes it look like The Kids Are All Right is hanging on for dear life. I really can’t see anything getting in here, even though Blue Valentine seems like the sort of original piece that would get some love here. Technically, I’d say Black Swan could be replaced here simply because the screenplay is easily its most unoriginal element – but that’s just personal projections, I know.Predictions (alpha): Black Swan / The Fighter / Inception / The Kids Are All Right / The King’s Speech Alternates: Blue Valentine / Please Give / Get Low
The adapted side is a bit more interesting, though I’m not going to be dumb enough to expect my favourites to make it in. Though, there’s still a smidgen of a chance they could make it in on a surprise bid. Due to the rules of the AMPAS (for some weird reason) Toy Story III is eligible here instead of original screenplay. Hubbub for that one has dwindled significantly but I anticipate more love for that than The Town which I’m still not certain is going to get a sizeable bloc of votes.
Predictions (alpha): 127 Hours / The Social Network / True Grit / Toy Story III / Winter’s Bone Alternates: The Town / Rabbit Hole / The Ghost Writer
DIRECTOR
The banality continues with the directors, although I’d prefer this line-up than the Coen’s edging out Reilly – in fact, I’d prefer anyone in the current line-up to the Coen’s. And there doesn’t seem to be a chance of a nod for Choledenko or Granik.
Predictions (alpha): Aronofsky for Black Swan / Fincher for The Social Network / Hooper for The King’s Speech / Nolan for Inception / Reilly for The Fighter Alternates: Coen’s for True Grit
And the final category. I’m predicting a snub for Winter’s Bone, which I think will be like Away From Her getting nods for screenplay and the acting, I don’t anticipate getting those key #1 votes to make it in (although, I don’t see The Town getting #1 votes either). It’s essentially an unexciting list, but I’m not expecting any surprises.
PICTURE
Predictions (alpha): 127 Hours / Black Swan / The Fighter / Inception / The Kids Are All Right / The King’s Speech / The Social Network / The Town / True Grit / Toy Story III Alternates: Winter’s Bone / Get Low / Shutter Islandand of course in the animated section it all looks quite drab, but I've seen two animated films this year....
Predictions (alpha): How to Train Your Dragon / Toy Story III / Tangled Alternates (by probability): The Illusionist / Despicable Me
Other Final Predictions:
Art Direction, Costume Design and Makeup
Sound, Original Song and Score
Visual Effects, Cinematography and Editing
Supporting Actors
Lead Actors
(So my predictions have The King's Speech topping the list with 12 nominees...we'll see how correct I am.)
So, it’s a few hours away – any final hopes for surprises? Will Shutter Island pull of an upset? Are you just blasé about the entire event? Who’s looking forward to hearing Mo’Nique enunciate beautifully?
I can’t help but hate that the Actor and Actress categories are regarded as the superior ones. I guess, back in the day when the supporting players received plaques and not an actual statute that there really was a difference in winning a leading and supporting Oscar – but now that everyone’s receiving the same gold man that sort of logic seems foolish. Still, here we have them – the two main acting categories and pundits would have you believe that the winners have been chosen in both. But, this space is dedicated to predicting the nominees irrespective of potential winners – for now, anyhow.
BEST ACTOR
Predictions (alpha): Jeff Bridges in True Grit / Robert Duvall in Get Low / Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network / Colin Firth in The King’s Speech / James Franco in 127 Hours Alternates (by probability): Mark Wahlberg in The Fighter / Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine
BEST ACTRESS
Predictions (alpha): Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right / Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole / Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone / Natalie Portman in Black Swan / Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit Alternates (by probability): Julianne Moore in The Kids Are All Right / Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine / Hilary Swank in Conviction
Are the lead categories as wrapped up as I think or will the Blue Valentine duo crack the top 5? Will AMPAS honour Hailee here or am I just projecting – incorrectly? Any last minute predictions?
Oh yes, the acting categories. I'll submit my own ballot soon, inevitably after Oscar because I am LAZY, but what will Oscar go for?
SUPPORTING ACTOR
If there’s one thing I can congratulate the general unoriginality of the current awards’ season for it’s for their good choices in the supporting actor category. I’ve long been less than a fan of this category that’s always smattered with co-leads, life-time achievement awards and downright terrible performances. And even though there’s only a slight crossover between my own list and the potential Oscar shortlist, I’m not too mad at them. I’ll admit, it’s more than a little boring seeing Christian Bale sweep through the entire race when there’s a wide variety of great performances – but it’s difficult to deny the goodness of his performance. More than just being a baity performance, it’s actually a good performance – and it’s difficult to deny the goodwill of the very convivial Fighter family. They always seem so welcoming of awards’ attention. I’ve given up on expecting Ruffalo or Rush to pull an upset, and though the Foreign Press Association stupidly ignored him – along with Bale are the holy trimester of this category.
I just have this weird feeling that there’s going to be a shakeup in this category – it’s the most susceptible to shakeup I think because it’s really the only category that seems ironclad (more so than Best Actor). Sure, Renner and Garfield have turned up places but I can see them both getting snubbed. Garfield, because he’s young as good as he is The Social Network is not his film – and Oscar always has this tendency to make the young supporting actors wait for nomination love (case in point Mortensen and Astin in The Two Towers and The Return of the King). But, then, if love for The Social Network is strong then he could be swept in on the coattails. Renner’s a bigger puzzle for me because I still don’t see what’s propelling this apparent widespread love for The Town. And good as Renner is, there just seems to be something precarious about his nomination pool. What of Hawkins? Hmmm. I know that the SAG nod made him seem like a plausible candidate, and he can be a spoiler but love for the Winter’s Bone seems really tapered – he is still a potential candidate
Predictions (alpha): Christian Bale in The Fighter / Andrew Garfield in The Social Network / Jeremy Renner in The Town / Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right / Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech Alternates (by probability): John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone / Bill Murray in Get Low
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
So, is Melissa Leo still going to take this thing? I suppose we can be assured that Melissa, Helena and Amy are heading to nominations and – irrespective of actual performances – I’m happy to see those three getting nominated. It’s impossible to not like Amy and it’s nice seeing not-so-old gals like Melissa and Helena enjoying second nominations in Best Picture candidates. I’m just predicting nominees, so I’ll think about potential winners when I actually have a definitive group to pick from. It’s weird, though, but it’s also normal that the supporting actress race has a gamut of performances to choose some and yet they’re not all getting love. In theory, Jacki Weaver is an obvious nominee – sure, Animal Kingdom hasn’t got the widespread love it would have gotten had it been an American piece, but she’s popped up at enough critics’ awards and has even won a few so despite the SAG snub (stupid) and the BAFTA won (even more) I don’t see her getting snubbed at the AMPAs. But then, it makes me wonder – does she have a better chance of a nomination than Mila Kunis who’s riding the wave of Black Swan? Honestly, that’s the biggest scare I’m having right now – the thought that Kunis could get in over such a wide field of deserving ladies is seriously giving me goose bumps (and not in a good way). And the thing is, right there, we could have a slot of nominees – and sure it’s not that bad because even though I don’t love Leo she’s nowhere terrible in The Fighter...but that sounds too easy, no?
I don’t know why something is telling me to not write off Manville (and include her here instead of Leading), I haven’t even seen Another Year and the last lock Leigh seemed to have (paging Sally “Poppy” Hawkins) didn’t come to fruition despite a Golden Globe nomination and win. But, I sort of want to think they’ll push her here... and then, there’s the biggest category fraud this side of the millennium – Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, which is another exasperating possibility that just depresses me. If she doesn’t make it in the lead race – I don’t see her making it anywhere, because I don’t see the voters being silly enough to reward her here, if they pushed Kate in lead, heck they pushed Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada as a lead (which it wasn’t) so I think we’re safe from her here – the Actress category is another story. And, finally, there is the pair of ladies from Made in Dagenham – Rosamund Pike and Miranda Richardson. Rosamund has had a nice year (or so I heard) apparently being a shining light in Barney’s Version and this biopic, and Miranda is the sort of affable screen presence it’s difficult to ignore. Could there be an upset nomination for either? I wouldn’t be against...but I just don’t know. But, here goes.
Predictions (alpha): Amy Adams in The Fighter / Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech / Mila Kunis in Black Swan / Melissa Leo in The Fighter / Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom Alternates (by probability): Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit / Miranda Richardson in Made in Dagenham / Leslie Manville in Another Year
Are you sensing an upset (nomination) for the men – a la Michael Shannon or William Hurt? Am I crazy for ignoring the possibility of the studios lying through their teeth and earning Steinfeld a nomination? Who’d you love to see pop up in either categories?
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