Johnny Simmons

And just because I’m feeling nostalgic – another poll...which Christian/Winona match-up triumphs?

 

You sort of want to expect an upset to occur in some acting category, but you also don’t to circulate ridiculous predictions.

 In all honesty, I’d love for some upset to happen in the supporting actor category (granted that upset comes in the form of Mark Ruffalo). Not because I don’t think Bale is fine, but I’m on Ruffalo’s side all the way. In fact, I wouldn’t mind an upset for Rush either, he and Bale go toe to toe for me.

NOMINEES: Christian Bale in The Fighter / John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone / Jeremy Renner in The Town / Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right / Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech Prediction: Christian Bale Alternate: Geoffrey Rush

I don’t see Bale losing this, though. Were there an upset, you’d sort of expect it to be Rush if only because he has the most likeable character of the five, and there’s nothing like goodwill behind a film. Add that to the fact that he was instrumental in bringing The King’s Speech to fruition and you have to anticipate some love...but I don’t see the upset happening here.

I can’t be too certain that this is where the upset is happening either. That being said, though, I think any of four persons could take this prize and I wouldn’t be surprised. There’s a bit of irony that the best performance of the lot (i.e. Ms. Weaver) has 0 chance of winning, and more and more persons seem to have an inkling that the least of the five (i.e. Steinfeld) could take the prize. It’s not that I think she’s awful, she’s more than serviceable – but I still find her nomination – in any category – somewhat vexing. I digress, though.

NOMINEES: Amy Adams in The Fighter / Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech / Melissa Leo in The Fighter / Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit / Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom Prediction: Helena Bonham Carter Alternate: Melissa Leo

Am I crazy for predicting HBC? I don’t know, I just can’t see Melissa Leo winning the Oscar – I’d even be more willing to predict Amy – not only because I think she’s better, but I’m just not seeing it. I’m thinking back to instances of dual supporting nominees, and they rarely win. Didn’t Helen Mirren pick up more than a few nods (including the SAG) before losing to supporting wife Jennifer Connelly (who was horribly trite in A Beautiful Mind). I’d wager that not only is Helena much better than Jennifer, she’s also more in need of a nod – and Melissa is no Helen either, but I’m alone on that because almost everyone seems smitten with her Alice. It’s a tough game to decide what the voters would go for, and it would probably be more prudent to predict Melissa. I could see this prediction panning out, and then I could see it not. I’m going on a gut, here. Maybe, I’ll change my mind before Sunday....

The first acting category...last year this category was overflowing with brilliance, and truth be told my five nominees from last year would probably knock every single nominee of this year out, Schneider's work in Bright Star is sooooooo good (not better than Whishaw, of course, but still great). Still, the supporting men were good this year and I like each of these performances. They didn't all get that Oscar love I wish they could have, but that doesn't negate the goodness of their work.

(click on the pictures for reviews)

Bale avoids the most obvious of pitfalls and avoids turning Dickie into one of those usual walking powder-keg drug addicts. Sure, he gets the physicality of a user down excellently – with every bodily twitch, but the performance has much more to offer. As riveting as he is in those moments, it’s the emotional bits where he shines. As good as he is with Mark his best moments are opposite Melissa Leo (a dynamic I’d have loved to see more of) and despite his overt lack of restraint his devotion to his family rings throughout the drama. (Highlight: “I Started A Joke”)

I hate that his obvious “actor” scenes are the ones that people keep remembering because the reasons I like this performance so much comes to the smaller bits. He knows Mark is an asshole, but he also knows they’re both similar in that desire for kinship (even though Mark is adamantly against social contact). He responds to every action from Mark, but he doesn’t really respond to Mark – and I’m not sure if its Fincher’s direction or his sensibilities but with every wince (blink and you’ll miss them) or slight intake of breath he’s making Eduardo more than the just token wronged friend and into a real person, which sounds sort of clichéd but is true nonetheless. (Highlight: The Chicken incident, at the deposition and at Harvard)

I think I tweeted sometime towards the end of last year that Paul is probably the most sympathetic character in the narrative. They’re all moving in their way, but this bathetic man child becomes the most stirring because Ruffalo is doing so much with it. It’s not that he gives my favourite performance of the film (he doesn’t) but it’s a classic example of script and actor finding a perfect match. He doesn’t even seem aware of Paul’s insecurities because Paul isn’t even aware of his insecurities, and those lingering glances and bits of stilted conversation only underscore the sort of wandering soul he is. And he does it all without EVER going over-the-top with it. (Highlight: First Meeting with Moms)

Rush avoids his usual theatricality (which I’m actually fond of) for a surprisingly tender portrayal of Logue here. Even though a significant portion of the narrative examines his relationship with the King, Seidler doesn’t explain his arc fully which leaves Logue as something of an enigma at times and Rush has no problem doing that. Sometimes it seems as if he’s usual tricks but that soft empathy with which he approaches Bertie is significant allowing him to dig deeper. One of the lasting things about the film is that you get the feeling there’s more to the man – but neither he (nor the film) is interested in going there. He’s willing to step aside.

(Highlight: First Meeting with “Mrs. Johnson”)

He has the sort of “open” face that makes it distressing to watch him, especially when you take into consideration how much he underplays the addiction arc – saving all that pent-up desperation only to completely destroy you when he unhinges in that final scene – well more than he was before. He’s already unhinged, not in the same manner as Mendehlson’s Pope, but just as much. His entire final scene played on a loop after coming out of the movie and it’s startling how with the absence of dialogue and even without the very overt facial tics that you’d expect, he manages to convey that nadir of despair that’s responsible for thrusting the narrative in a new destroy. (Highlight: his death)

                           

FINALISTS: Joel Edgerton leaves Animal Kingdom early on but that doesn’t prevent his Baz from having a lasting effect. ; Rhys Ifans gives a performance to rival the already good cast in Greenberg; Miles Teller functions as well as Eckhart, Wiest and Blanchard as a scene partner for Kidman in Rabbit Hole. He’s fortunate because Becca’s breakthrough moments come opposite him, and he plays excellently off her offering up a not clichéd example of how more than the grieving parties are victims of accidents.

SEMI-FINALISTS: Don Cheadle plays on the angry policemen in Brooklyn’s Finest to excellent results, showing again why he’s one of the best underrated actors at the moment; Kieran Culkin ends up stealing the show from everyone in Scott Pilgrim vs the World because even if his acerbic sidekick is a stereotype his line readings are hilarious; Andrew Garfield in Never Let Me Go; with just a few scenes to work with in The King’s Speech I finally get what people are talking about with Guy Pearce. He’s the right amount of EVERYTHING in the film and works so perfectly against Firth; Jonathan Tucker’s introverted psychiatric patient is one of the saving graces of Veronika Decides to Die. It’s more than his remarkable chemistry with Gellar – his attention to detail (which the script demands in those scenes where he has no dialogue) is impressive.

        

Oh yes, the acting categories. I'll submit my own ballot soon, inevitably after Oscar because I am LAZY, but what will Oscar go for?

        

If there’s one thing I can congratulate the general unoriginality of the current awards’ season for it’s for their good choices in the supporting actor category. I’ve long been less than a fan of this category that’s always smattered with co-leads, life-time achievement awards and downright terrible performances. And even though there’s only a slight crossover between my own list and the potential Oscar shortlist, I’m not too mad at them. I’ll admit, it’s more than a little boring seeing Christian Bale sweep through the entire race when there’s a wide variety of great performances – but it’s difficult to deny the goodness of his performance. More than just being a baity performance, it’s actually a good performance – and it’s difficult to deny the goodwill of the very convivial Fighter family. They always seem so welcoming of awards’ attention. I’ve given up on expecting Ruffalo or Rush to pull an upset, and though the Foreign Press Association stupidly ignored him – along with Bale are the holy trimester of this category.

             

I just have this weird feeling that there’s going to be a shakeup in this category – it’s the most susceptible to shakeup I think because it’s really the only category that seems ironclad (more so than Best Actor). Sure, Renner and Garfield have turned up places but I can see them both getting snubbed. Garfield, because he’s young as good as he is The Social Network is not his film – and Oscar always has this tendency to make the young supporting actors wait for nomination love (case in point Mortensen and Astin in The Two Towers and The Return of the King). But, then, if love for The Social Network is strong then he could be swept in on the coattails. Renner’s a bigger puzzle for me because I still don’t see what’s propelling this apparent widespread love for The Town. And good as Renner is, there just seems to be something precarious about his nomination pool. What of Hawkins? Hmmm. I know that the SAG nod made him seem like a plausible candidate, and he can be a spoiler but love for the Winter’s Bone seems really tapered – he is still a potential candidate

Predictions (alpha): Christian Bale in The Fighter / Andrew Garfield in The Social Network / Jeremy Renner in The Town / Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right / Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech Alternates (by probability): John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone / Bill Murray in Get Low

So, is Melissa Leo still going to take this thing? I suppose we can be assured that Melissa, Helena and Amy are heading to nominations and – irrespective of actual performances – I’m happy to see those three getting nominated. It’s impossible to not like Amy and it’s nice seeing not-so-old gals like Melissa and Helena enjoying second nominations in Best Picture candidates. I’m just predicting nominees, so I’ll think about potential winners when I actually have a definitive group to pick from. It’s weird, though, but it’s also normal that the supporting actress race has a gamut of performances to choose some and yet they’re not all getting love. In theory, Jacki Weaver is an obvious nominee – sure, Animal Kingdom hasn’t got the widespread love it would have gotten had it been an American piece, but she’s popped up at enough critics’ awards and has even won a few so despite the SAG snub (stupid) and the BAFTA won (even more) I don’t see her getting snubbed at the AMPAs. But then, it makes me wonder – does she have a better chance of a nomination than Mila Kunis who’s riding the wave of Black Swan? Honestly, that’s the biggest scare I’m having right now – the thought that Kunis could get in over such a wide field of deserving ladies is seriously giving me goose bumps (and not in a good way). And the thing is, right there, we could have a slot of nominees – and sure it’s not that bad because even though I don’t love Leo she’s nowhere terrible in The Fighter...but that sounds too easy, no?

             

I don’t know why something is telling me to not write off Manville (and include her here instead of Leading), I haven’t even seen Another Year and the last lock Leigh seemed to have (paging Sally “Poppy” Hawkins) didn’t come to fruition despite a Golden Globe nomination and win. But, I sort of want to think they’ll push her here... and then, there’s the biggest category fraud this side of the millennium – Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, which is another exasperating possibility that just depresses me. If she doesn’t make it in the lead race – I don’t see her making it anywhere, because I don’t see the voters being silly enough to reward her here, if they pushed Kate in lead, heck they pushed Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada as a lead (which it wasn’t) so I think we’re safe from her here – the Actress category is another story. And, finally, there is the pair of ladies from Made in Dagenham – Rosamund Pike and Miranda Richardson. Rosamund has had a nice year (or so I heard) apparently being a shining light in Barney’s Version and this biopic, and Miranda is the sort of affable screen presence it’s difficult to ignore. Could there be an upset nomination for either? I wouldn’t be against...but I just don’t know. But, here goes.

                   

Predictions (alpha): Amy Adams in The Fighter / Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech / Mila Kunis in Black Swan / Melissa Leo in The Fighter / Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom Alternates (by probability): Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit / Miranda Richardson in Made in Dagenham / Leslie Manville in Another Year

         

Are you sensing an upset (nomination) for the men – a la Michael Shannon or William Hurt? Am I crazy for ignoring the possibility of the studios lying through their teeth and earning Steinfeld a nomination? Who’d you love to see pop up in either categories?

For all the ostensible theatrics of a man making a comeback and potentially forced dramatic plot-points that you know will end in a painful road to success, The Fighter is essentially a quite placid tale of prospective victory, and in the moment that can most easily be defined as a climax (tentatively used) Micky turns to everyone in the room and gives what’s potentially his most striking bit of dialogue – “I’m the one fighting; not you, not you and not you”. Even without the propensity for that to be regarded as a tongue-in-cheek delivery, I still chuckle at it because one of the striking things about The Fighter is how little Micky seems to be fighting. It’s not so much that his introverted personality doesn’t present him as a credible “fighter” but the way that Russell shoots those scenes (which in theory you’d expect to be important) is not very personal or  intrusive at all. Going on the belief that this is Micky’s “fight” one would expect the actual fights to be staged as such, which made The Fighter for me immediately reminiscent of Ron Howard’s Cinderella Man – an unfortunately ignored boxing drama that set itself up the same way as David O. Russell’s The Fighter – a familial drama with boxing undertones. The thing with Russell, though, is that he seems to flip-flop as to whether or not he’s content to make a family drama or a boxing film in disguise, or some eccentric amalgamation of the two.

And there’s more than just a little going on the family side of things. Micky’s career seems to be designed from the same mettle of his brother Dickey – former boxing would-be turned drug addict who may, or may not, have knocked over Sugar Ray Leonard how many years ago. You get the way that the unassuming Micky might have been cajoled into the business less out of a viable interest in the sport and more because of household inclinations. His officious mother plays his manager and his six sisters sit around the house doing nothing, if occasionally getting underfoot. You’re not even sure that he has a father until you notice Jack McGee’s George standing the backgrounds and you think – “Oh yes, someone had to give sperm to make him.” There’s already so much going on in Lowell that as docile as the first act lopes through it sets us up for a potential climax and conclusion complete with a barmaid love interest who’s simultaneously just as limited as Micky and his family (which is not necessarily a bad thing) and yet more ambitious. The thing is, Micky doesn’t seem like someone defined by his losses or defeats and Russell doesn’t even shoot the fights as especially pivotal so they sort of end up seeming like token set pieces framed in an apologetic way as if to imply that the necessary boxing piece must be included – just for the hell of it.

In the midst of the fighting I end up paying keener to attention to what goes on around the ring than what’s going on inside, as far as reacting to the realism of the fighting Melissa Leo manages to make Alice’s responses work more than anyone during these scenes. But, it’s not effusive praise from me because I’m constantly going back and forth as to what I think of her performance. I’m more immediately impressed by Amy Adams, not for the more obvious against-type performance she gives, but because Charlene in her quiet belligerence (almost paradoxical) emerges as the realest characters of the lot – she’s lucky because she gets to observe and participate in the dysfunctional tendencies surrounding everyone. Leo seems fond – too fond – of playing loud and garish in a way that makes for entertaining (stretching the meaning of that word) viewing but isn’t really substantial and in the larger picture makes the narrative just a little jarring; I sort of grit my teeth when she’s at her most bombastic because she seems more interested in delivery than authenticity. But, then she surprises me with some wonderfully astute decisions – the first of which, a beautiful moment opposite Christian Bale in a car is just thrilling to watch. It’s easily the strongest point in the film for both actors, and it’s a shame it comes so early – and is so short. It’s that sort of dissonance that gets to me because she ends up turning Alice into a bit of an anomaly which might be accurate but doesn’t make her character very lucid – which is, perhaps, not her fault but still annoying.

If the biggest compliment I play Adams is her realness, I’ll credit Bale for being the most natural of the performers. Even if I’m not wholly smitten with what he does he manages to make even the most overbearing and exaggerated of tics seem like facets of the character and not the actor and even in his obviousness he’s at his best when playing on the scale of a favoured son and idolised brother and not as a drug addict – in the same way that Wahlberg Micky is notable not for his boxing but for his introspection. Although there’s nothing definitively better about the third act than the first The Fighter feels like the type of experience that has to find its footing before it succeeds. It’s because the narrative is not about the plot, but about the characters and its only after prolonged exposure to them that we’re able to appreciate their value. The ending might feel a little too docile, but if you pay enough attention you’d notice that it’s the only way the thing could end. The victory is not in the ring, even though Russell seems like he wants to set it up as such he seems to have a change of heart at the end when he realises (and the audience, too) that even before Micky gets into the ring for that pivotal fight you get the feeling that he’s already on the road to success with a family that’s broken but still trying; which makes me think that Micky is wrong – he may be the only one in the ring, but they’re all fighters.

                                  

True to form, after the general summer appreciation for The Kids Are All Right passed Mark Ruffalo’s performance has failed to “stick its landing”. After hearing a tetchy commenter accuse him of playing the same hackneyed stoner in all his films I realised just how much of a pipedream it was for me to consider him a contender for the Supporting Actor trophy six months ago. It’s probably a tad supercilious of me because I like the performance, but everything that works for Ruffalo’s Paul depends on keen perusal something that’s not explicitly needed to appreciate the performance of the current frontrunner in the race – Christian Bale’s scenery-chewing brother in The Fighter. Reserving judgement on the veritable worth of either performance, one can appreciate how Bale’s Dicky has an edge. The Fighter is altogether more interested in forwarding Dicky’s agenda than Choledenko and Blumberg are with establishing Paul as any sort of fallen hero. And though Ruffalo, like Bale, is the type of actor yet to earn a nomination but constantly turning in films Bale’s is more peppered with the obvious and easily recognisable (which is not inherently bad). In theory Ruffalo is the only potential nominee I can see winning the statue, but for the fact its low-key nature makes it an unlikely contender.

                                                       

If The King’s Speech were still holding onto its former frontrunner status I’d have entertained the idea of a Rush upset. There’s no one who has seen The King’s Speech that doesn’t seem to appreciate his charismatic turn. But it’s not the sort of fussy supporting turn that demands attention and Rush already has a statue. If The Town were a better film, or if more were smitten with it, Renner could have emerged as another candidate for an upset. He’s fresh off a best picture winner, he’s still at that age where he’s finally getting his dues but still young enough to be considered fresh and he’s easily the best thing in his film. But, even though The Town may be heading to a Picture nomination with a ten-wide field that isn’t that much of an accolade and maybe I’m underestimating the ability but I still don’t see it being indiscriminately embraced by all. Considering the year he had Andrew Garfield seems like someone to keep your eyes on – but I think not. A number have praised him effusively, and he is excellent in The Social Network but that one seems to be all Eisenberg’s show. And I don’t know if it’s mob psychology and all voters do it, but there’s a tendency for supporting actor front runners to be less “supporting” and more of a type of a stealth co-lead. That makes Bale resurface as the obvious one to beat here, and the critics seem to agree. Those five actors seem like a good bet for the eventual nominees, although I have an inkling feeling that there could be an upset nomination here. Perhaps John Hawkes who made an appearace at the SAG – I don’t know. I’m predicting these five, though.

Christian Bale in The Fighter

Andrew Garfield in The Social Network

Jeremy Renner in The Town

Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right

Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech

                                              

All things considered it doesn’t seem like a particularly bad roundup of nominees – especially considering the clunkers that often get nominated here. But, like with most things this season I’m particularly enthused. I can immediately think of three performances that I’d have loved seeing considered but the entire male ensemble of Animal Kingdom have gotten no love, and the same goes for everyone but Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole – so Miles Teller’s name has gotten no consideration. It's one of the things that you can count on - especially in this category. This is always the category where I'm nonplussed about the decisions that all the usual precursors go running with, but even though there are some contenders I could get behind that are getting no love, I’ll still maintain that the four performances of the lot I’ve seen are worthy of consideration – and Rush is always golden, so I’ll put my faith in that. It's a better batch of potential nominees than years gone by.